浪里淘金 2008-9-29 16:12
美联储的资产负债表说明了什么?(英文过关滴请进来)
下面说滴是啥!?
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Extraordinary times
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Posted on Friday, September 26th, 2008 by bsetser
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In the last two weeks — if I am reading the Federal Reserves’ balance sheet data correctly — the Fed has:
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Increased “other loans” to the financial system by around $230 billion (from $23.56b to $262.34b);
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Increased its “other assets” by about $80b (from $98.67b to $183.89b);
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Increased the securities it lends out to dealers by $60b (from $117.3b to $190.5b);
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That works out to the provision of something like $370b of credit to the financial system in a two week period. That may be a bit too high: the outstanding stock of repos felll by $40b (from $126b to $ 86b), leaving a $330b net change in these line items. But that is still enormous.
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The most that the IMF ever lent out to cash strapped emerging economies in a year?"ZX,jho ~7\
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$30b, in the four quarters through September 1998 (i.e. the peak of the 97-98 crisis). 8` Vq@$T3}B
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The most the IMF ever lend out over two years? ~:p7tnd W;r@D-r
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$40b, in the eight quarters through June 2003 (this covered crises in Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Turkey)$C2^9pA!T
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This is a very real crisis. The Fed’s balance tells a story of extraordinary stress. I never would have expected to see the Fed lend out these kinds of sums over such a short-period.3\\#Y2v/p
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And what have the rest of the world’s central banks done over this period?
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There has been a lot of talk that central banks would abandon US assets because the perceived risk of holding dollars (and Treasuries) has gone up.
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The custodial data though don’t provide much evidence to support this theory. 2L+Ai[~3]~Tzv.TV%N
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Over the last two weeks, the Fed’s custodial holdings have increased by over $40b, rising from $2394.7b to $2435.9b. Treasuries account for over $30b of the increase, but Agency holdings are rising as well. Chalk up one (minor) success for Paulson.
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Right now, it seems like central banks are running into the safest US assets, not running away from the dollar. That of course could change. But it is hard to square a $20b weekly increase in the New York Fed’s custodial holdings with a story based on a fall in central bank demand for dollars. For that matter, it is hard to square the $425b increase in the New York Fed’s custodial holdings since last September with all the of the angst about the dollar’s status as a reserve currency. Cw{!n)Bw6_
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If anything, the pace of growth in the Fed’s custodial holdings over the past two weeks strikes me as stronger than the likely pace of global reserve growth. That suggests to me that central banks are shifting funds out of the commercial banks (and money market funds) into Treasuries that can be held at the Fed’s custodial accounts. I would bet that central banks are shifting money to the BIS as well.
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Remember, most central banks do not have a mandate to take credit losses. They can take currency losses — as currency risk is implicit in the notion of foreign exchange reserves. But having money in a bank that fails would be very hard for most to explain.-vZ'|POZ
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Note that all my data compares the data for the end of the reporting week, i.e the data for September 24 to the data for September 10.
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UPDATE: I should have noted a fall in the Fed’s repos with the banks in my initial post. The changes in the Fed’s balance sheet are so large that I am not sure that I still know how to read the report, so please attach an error bar to the numbers above (apart from the numbers on the custodial holdings). I may have missed some additional credit extension, or some offsetting items. The basic story though is clearly true: the changes in the Fed’s “other loans” alone are enormous.
浪里淘金 2008-9-29 16:13
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For Release at8Ku1V-gVDYg2{
4:30 P.M. Eastern time
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September 25, 2008
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The Board's H.4.1 statistical release, "Factors Affecting Reserve Balances of Depository Institutions and
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Condition Statement of Federal Reserve Banks" has been modified in a number of ways. On September 17, the
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Treasury Department announced the Supplementary Financing Program. Under this program, the Treasury
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issues marketable debt and deposits the proceeds in an account at the Federal Reserve that is segregated
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from the Treasury General Account. This account is shown as "U.S. Treasury, supplementary financing+Z4{'i9fa,adr
account" in table 1, table 4, and table 5.2qa f`%LFn6M
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On September 19, the Federal Reserve announced a new lending facility to extend non-recourse loans to U.S.
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depository institutions and bank holding companies to finance their purchases of high-quality asset-backed{j3su/SPP
commercial paper from money market mutual funds. Extensions of this credit are reported in table 1 as.Vf ^ugh ?
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"Asset-backed commercial paper money market mutual fund liquidity facility" and reflected in "Other
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loans" in table 3, table 4, and table 5.
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On September 21, the Board of Governors authorized the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to extend credit
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to the U.S. broker-dealer subsidiaries of Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Merrill Lynch against all
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types of collateral that may be pledged at the Federal Reserve's primary credit facility for depository:V^B2~oLK9Zhr
institutions or at the existing Primary Dealer Credit Facility. In addition, the Board authorized the
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Federal Reserve Bank of New York to extend credit to the London-based broker-dealer subsidiaries of
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Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Merrill Lynch against the types of collateral that would be eligiblea6j5|th.h$Pd;sdB
to be pledged at the Primary Dealer Credit Facility. Credit extended under these authorizations will beK/D!_jK&R/px
included, along with credit extended under the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, in Table 1 under the entryvA C
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"Primary dealer and other broker-dealer credit."
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FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release
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Factors Affecting Reserve Balances of Depository Institutions and
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Condition Statement of Federal Reserve Banks
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September 25, 2008
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1. Factors Affecting Reserve Balances of Depository Institutions
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Millions of dollars
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Reserve Bank credit, related items, and Averages of daily figuresb3n!NK`0]/e3V
reserve balances of depository institutions at Week ended Change from week ended Wednesday5? {
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Federal Reserve Banks Sep 24, 2008 Sep 17, 2008 Sep 26, 2007 Sep 24, 2008
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Reserve Bank credit 1,134,942 + 203,602 + 275,175 1,196,804
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Securities held outright 480,272 + 454 - 299,362 486,578 i0zp I&c5K
U.S. Treasury (1) 476,557 - 3,261 - 303,077 476,578
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Bills (2) 18,423 - 3,317 - 248,596 18,423 VZ(}I^{
Notes and bonds, nominal (2) 411,731 0 - 60,411 411,731
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Notes and bonds, inflation-indexed (2) 39,832 0 + 4,079 39,832
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Inflation compensation (3) 6,572 + 57 + 1,852 6,593SX"HD ^g0[%r`V
Federal agency (2) 3,714 + 3,714 + 3,714 10,000 !M wffWd6d.XJ
Repurchase agreements (4) 111,714 - 12,786 + 72,607 86,000